Dakota Plan · Odessa, TX 79761

$197,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Manufactured · 826 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this country home beauty in unrestricted Bates Estates! 13707 WCR 171 Odessa TX 79766. 2023 Champion model 32x52 1586 sq. ft 3 bed 2 bath 1.1 Acre lot all utilities on site move in ready home in Midland county ECISD school district easy access to Loop 338 I-20 and Hwy 385. 10 year structural warranty. Limited availability call to schedule a viewing 432-332-9733

Key facts

• Listed 825 days

🏗️ New construction. The $197,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 826 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 826 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,259
• List price: $197,400
• Delta: -25.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-62,461
• Equity at exit: $39,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-94,884
• Equity at exit: $22,935

Cash invested: $74,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79761

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,391
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,979/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $234,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-120	+0% $-212	+5% $-304	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-293	+0% $-212	+5% $-131	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-144	base $-212	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,315
• Closing costs: $7,958
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2511 Beechwood St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,595	$1.18	14d	1	0.27mi
2620 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,950	$1.22	21d	1	0.39mi
2705 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,400	$1.65	21d	1	0.46mi
2735 E 8th St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,844	$2.19	14d	8	0.73mi
701 Hillcrest Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	44d	1	0.85mi
1709 Byron Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,975	$1.00	44d	1	0.87mi
1334 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	2200	$2,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.88mi
1706 Emerald Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1992	$2,500	$1.26	44d	1	0.88mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	14d	1	0.99mi
1513 E 11th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,300	$1.91	44d	1	1.05mi
2801 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,800	$1.16	14d	1	1.16mi
4607 Garden Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	1.18mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	44d	1	1.19mi
3420 Fairlane Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2164	$2,100	$0.97	21d	1	1.34mi
2905 Byron Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,400	$1.32	14d	1	1.35mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1508	$1,800	$1.19	14d	1	1.41mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	21d	1	1.41mi
1401 E 18th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	14d	1	1.42mi
3916 Boulder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1935	$2,100	$1.09	21d	1	1.42mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	14d	1	1.48mi
3310 Tanglewood Ln Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,200	$1.27	21d	1	1.48mi
3312 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $197,400 Active 826 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,400 Active 825 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,400 Active 824 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,400 Active 823 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,400 Active 822 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,400 Active 820 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,400 Active 819 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,400 Active 817 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,400 Active 816 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $197,400 Active 815 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,400 Active 814 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,400 Active 809 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,400 Active 808 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,400 Active 807 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,400 Active 806 DOM
16. 2024-03-15
    listed $197,400 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Check out this country home beauty in unrestricted Bates Estates! 13707 WCR 171 Odessa TX 79766. 2023 Champion model 32x52 1586 sq. ft 3 bed 2 bath 1.1 Acre lot all utilities on site move in ready home in Midland county ECISD school district easy access to Loop 338 I-20 and Hwy 385. 10 year structural warranty. Limited availability call to schedule a viewing 432-332-9733

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,859
• − Property taxes: −$3,979
• − Insurance: −$1,326
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$7,717
• Taxable loss: −$7,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Odessa, TX, offers a good condition with modern finishes and minimal maintenance needs. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the updated features and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves home's marketability and adds value
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and safety
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves home's marketability and adds value ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,164
• Household income: $68,228
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.66%
• Current HPI: 254.9159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-03-15 Listed $197,400 Zillow