2913 Hornbill St

Denton, TX 76205

$391,685F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,036 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,054
• Tax + insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-791/mo
• Annual: $-9,486/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $109,672

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $392k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-791 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (35.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Borman El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 429 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Denton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.