2913 Hornbill St · Denton, TX 76205

$391,685

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,036 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 7,366 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton is now selling in the new phase at their fabulous community of Eagle Creek in Denton and Denton ISD!! The single-story Kingston Floorplan, Elevation I, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to balance open-concept living with comfortable private spaces. The heart of the home features a seamless flow between the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating a warm and inviting environment ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with quartz countertops, stainless steel Frigidaire appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantr

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• En-suite bath
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $392k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-791 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Borman El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 429 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Denton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,055 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-121,096
• Equity at exit: $58,402

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-198,392
• Equity at exit: $33,866

Cash invested: $109,672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76205

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,054
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,875/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,511

Max offer price $277,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-520	-5% $-655	+0% $-791	+5% $-926	+10% $-1,061
Rent	-10% $-989	-5% $-890	+0% $-791	+5% $-691	+10% $-592
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-691	base $-791	+0.5pp $-892	+1.0pp $-995

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,921
• Closing costs: $11,751
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	0d	1	0.18mi
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	12d	1	0.25mi
2605 Starling St Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2150	$2,850	$1.33	0d	1	0.29mi
2301 Ruff Rd Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.43mi
2201 Yellowhammer Rd Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2874	$3,150	$1.10	26d	1	0.49mi
2704 Donella Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,500	$1.32	45d	1	0.57mi
2200 Laurel St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,195	$1.52	45d	1	0.72mi
1403 Kendolph Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,975	$1.51	4d	1	1.04mi
3108 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2124	$2,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.09mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	4d	1	1.11mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	18d	1	1.11mi
3100 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2572	$2,550	$0.99	45d	1	1.13mi
1324 Norman St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	1.17mi
3121 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,399	$1.30	4d	1	1.19mi
4512 Remuda Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	45d	1	1.22mi
1112 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1606	$2,405	$1.50	45d	1	1.25mi
3128 Buckthorn Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,395	$1.30	45d	1	1.26mi
1105 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,099	$1.50	45d	1	1.27mi
1103 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	45d	1	1.28mi
1007 W Collins St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,850	$1.09	20d	1	1.28mi
1029 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,200	$1.05	45d	1	1.29mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	14d	1	1.30mi
3312 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,200	$1.27	26d	1	1.31mi
1009 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,970	$1.34	22d	1	1.36mi
1001 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,235	$1.48	1d	1	1.36mi
4505 Merlot Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.37mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,600	$1.22	6d	1	1.42mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,900	$1.36	45d	1	1.42mi
101 Daugherty St Denton, TX	4.0	4.0	1458	$694	$0.48	45d	1	1.43mi
3401 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1922	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	1.43mi
3413 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,250	$1.34	19d	1	1.44mi
3600 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,350	$1.26	19d	1	1.44mi
3612 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,350	$1.40	45d	1	1.45mi
5108 Middlestone Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1913	$2,750	$1.44	9d	1	1.46mi
3621 Bonnie Brae St Unit 3621 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,195	$1.18	45d	1	1.47mi
3329 Tamarack Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,600	$1.30	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   listed $391,685 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,940
• − Property taxes: −$5,875
• − Insurance: −$1,958
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$11,394
• Taxable loss: −$16,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,978
• Household income: $68,600
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1268.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 290.7883
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $391,685 NTREIS

Property tax history

-13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $318 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.