4 Tulip St

Lyndon, VT 05851

$198,000B

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,481 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $276/mo
• Annual: $3,314/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (0.1% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.