4 Tulip St · Lyndon, VT 05851

$198,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,481 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1880 5,227 sqft lot $80/sqft · 6% below area Est $260k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Paved parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath. There is potential to turn the 2nd Floor into an apartment.

Key facts

• Paved parking for 4
• 100 amp beaker box
• Own utilities

Tags

• ATTACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• OWN UTILITIES
• 100 AMP BEAKER BOX
• HOT WATER ALL UPDATED
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• PAVED PARKING FOR 4

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,180 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,245
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -23.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
968 Center St	0.06mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,725 (+10%)	21mo	$190,000	$70	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $125,405
• Equity at exit: $178,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $355,425
• Equity at exit: $384,670

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $332	+0% $276	+5% $220	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $198	+0% $276	+5% $354	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $327	base $276	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $198,000 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

4. 2026-05-01
   price $198,000 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

5. 2026-04-16
   status Active 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Paved parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath. There is potential to turn the 2nd Floor into an apartment.

6. 2026-04-16
   status Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Paved parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath. There is potential to turn the 2nd Floor into an apartment.

7. 2026-04-14
   historical Active with Contract 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

8. 2026-04-14
   historical Active with Contract 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

9. 2026-01-28
   listed $205,000 Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

10. 2026-01-28
    listed $205,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    An opportunity to consider. A single family home with attached two car garage with income producing 1 Bedroom Rental Apartment located in the center of Lyndonville village. Apt has own utilities. 100 amp Beaker box, Hot Water all updated. Newer Metal Roof. Parking for 4. Private, fenced backyard. Main house features large kitchen with Washer, Dryer & Appliances 1st Floor Bedroom and Bath.

11. 2023-03-13
    soldstatus $143,500
12. 2020-02-14
    soldstatus $115,000
13. 2017-07-17
    soldstatus $107,950
14. 2017-07-13
    soldstatus $107,950 Closed
15. 2017-05-27
    historical Active with Contract
16. 2017-05-15
    listed $122,000 Active
17. 2013-05-11
    soldstatus $111,000
18. 2013-05-10
    soldstatus $111,000
19. 2013-05-10
    soldstatus $111,000
20. 2013-01-31
    listed $124,900
21. 2013-01-31
    listed $124,900
22. 2010-12-06
    soldstatus $113,000
23. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus $113,000
24. 2010-11-30
    soldstatus $113,000
25. 2009-06-12
    listed $124,900
26. 2009-06-12
    listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,994 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,878 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$884/yr (+$74/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable income: $110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $3,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyndonville, VT
• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+58.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $198,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $198,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $205,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $205,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records
• 2020-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $107,950 Public Records
• 2017-07-13 Sold (MLS) $107,950 PrimeMLS
• 2017-05-27 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2017-05-15 Listed $122,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-10 Sold (MLS) $111,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-05-10 Sold (MLS) $111,000 PrimeMLS
• 2013-01-31 Listed $124,900 PrimeMLS
• 2013-01-31 Listed $124,900 PrimeMLS
• 2010-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-30 Sold (MLS) $113,000 PrimeMLS
• 2010-11-30 Sold (MLS) $113,000 PrimeMLS
• 2009-06-12 Listed $124,900 PrimeMLS
• 2009-06-12 Listed $124,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,994 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.