5626 Dover

Happy Valley, CA 96007

$89,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,637/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $558/mo
• Annual: $6,691/yr
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.58%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Happy Valley Union Elementary (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #414 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.4% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.