5626 Dover · Happy Valley, CA 96007

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1985 5.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet country location for this mobile home. Located down a dirt road, this property is fenced and gated with a 1 car and 2 car, carport for storage. The home features a woodstove for cold winter days. Bring your ideas and make this home shine!

Key facts

• Fenced
• Woodstove
• Gated

Tags

• FENCED
• GATED
• WOODSTOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot characterized as 2–5 units per acre/value in land; Single unit property; No ADU
• Financial info: Property listed as a fixer

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport with space for 3 vehicles; Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Propane available; Electricity connected (standard); Water connected to district/public supply; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry at side
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Outbuilding on property; Wire fencing; Has a view; Rural setting; Unpaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen; Laminate countertops; Propane range
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathrooms feature shower-in-tub and laminate counters
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: One-level home with side entry; Main level has 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms; Free-standing wood fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.4% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Happy Valley Union Elementary (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #414 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.58%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $21,040
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $64,436
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96007

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,722/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,722
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $5,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Happy Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0616570
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,093
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8375
• State rank: #414 of 517 in CA

Livability — Happy Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,768
• Household income: $61,357
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 758.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.70%
• Current HPI: 179.6613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+62.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $260,500 Public Records
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,722 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.