610 W Davis St

Hearne, TX 77859

$165,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,100/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hearne El (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,974 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 408 students, 94% FRL, charter); Hearne J H (math 8% / reading 12%, charter); Hearne Jh/Hs (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,552 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 96% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 22% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.