610 W Davis St · Hearne, TX 77859

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1910 0.26 ac lot $74/sqft · at area comps Est $166k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

Key facts

• Victorian-style home
• Updated flooring
• Functional layout

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• MINI-SPLIT A/C SYSTEM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CORNER LOT
• VICTORIAN-STYLE HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Hearne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hearne El (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,974 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 408 students, 94% FRL, charter); Hearne J H (math 8% / reading 12%, charter); Hearne Jh/Hs (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,552 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 22% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,198
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -0.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Anderson St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-9%)	12mo	$264,900	$132	37
907 S Magnolia St	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,539 (+14%)	23mo	$80,000	$32	35
1002 S San Jose St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,952 (-12%)	17mo	$110,000	$56	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $111,589
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $311,426
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77859

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $388	+0% $342	+5% $295	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $273	+0% $342	+5% $411	+10% $480
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $384	base $342	+0.5pp $299	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 236 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 235 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 234 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    status Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

18. 2026-03-30
    historical 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

19. 2026-02-10
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

20. 2026-02-10
    status Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

21. 2026-01-30
    status Pending 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

22. 2026-01-28
    status Pending 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

23. 2026-01-19
    status Pending
24. 2025-10-15
    price $139,000

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

25. 2025-10-15
    price $139,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

26. 2025-10-13
    price $140,000

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

27. 2025-10-13
    price $140,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

28. 2025-09-23
    price $145,000

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

29. 2025-09-23
    listed $145,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

30. 2025-09-23
    listed $135,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious 2,224 sq ft home with 4 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms on an 11,500 sq ft corner lot. This property features updated flooring, a mini-split A/C system, and a functional layout with ample space. Dont miss this opportunity to own a Victorian-style home in a growing community!

31. 2025-05-07
    historical
32. 2024-12-31
    price $143,000
33. 2024-12-31
    price $143,000
34. 2024-08-20
    price $146,000
35. 2024-08-19
    price $146,000
36. 2024-07-27
    price $147,000
37. 2024-07-27
    price $147,000
38. 2024-06-12
    price $147,500
39. 2024-06-12
    price $147,500
40. 2024-05-31
    price $150,000
41. 2024-05-31
    price $150,000
42. 2024-05-24
    price $157,500
43. 2024-05-24
    price $157,500
44. 2024-05-10
    price $160,000
45. 2024-05-10
    price $160,000
46. 2024-04-15
    price $165,000
47. 2024-04-15
    price $165,000
48. 2024-03-29
    listed $175,000 Active
49. 2024-03-29
    listed $175,000 Active
50. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus Closed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,760/yr (+$147/mo · 139.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $3,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hearne, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,516

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 29% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.97%
• Current HPI: 177.7117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $139,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $140,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $145,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $135,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $143,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $143,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $146,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $146,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $147,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $147,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $147,500 HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $147,500 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $150,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $157,500 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $160,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $165,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $175,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-01-11 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2022-09-16 Listed $79,900 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · -63.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.