776 N Alvord Ave

Burns, OR 97720

$194,700D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,021
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-861/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $54,516

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-861/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#181 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harney County SD 3 (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #41 of 58 in OR (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henry L Slater Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 352 students, 59% FRL); Hines Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 164 students, 49% FRL); Burns High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 219 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Harney County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harney County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $130k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.