1635 County Road 409

Stockdale, TX 78160

$225,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-391/mo
• Annual: $-4,689/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (47.9% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#490 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockdale ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #232 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockdale El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 397 students, 54% FRL); Stockdale J H (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 199 students, 53% FRL); Stockdale H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 257 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.4% in Stockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.