1635 County Road 409 · Stockdale, TX 78160

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1998 1.30 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious country living with room to grow! This well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 1.30 acres(approx. ) and offers 1,292 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. The single-wide manufactured home (never moved) was fully remodeled in 2021 and features a durable galvanized metal roof and a large inviting tree shaded front porch. Outside, you'll find an impressive setup for work or hobbies-a 3-car metal/pipe carport with an attached 12' x 26' workshop equipped with electricity and in the backyard an all-metal chicken coop (10' x 16'). An herb garden is already started for your gardening pleasure. The entire ac unit both inside and out was replaced in 12-2022. The property will be fully fenc

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Herb garden
• 1.3 acre lot

Tags

• GALVANIZED METAL ROOF
• 3 CAR METAL PIPE CARPORT
• ALL METAL CHICKEN COOP
• HERB GARDEN
• FULLY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale (not a short sale)
• Financial info: Down payment assistance not indicated
• HOA & community: Subdivision: M L DE LOS COY SUR

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Electric service by FELPS; Water service via Sunko and co-op water; Septic
• Home design: Pre-owned manufactured home by Fleetwood; Metal roof; Siding and aluminum exterior; Approximately 28 years old; Recent rehab
• Construction: Metal roof; Siding exterior; Aluminum exterior; Built ~28 years ago
• Exterior features: Partial fence; Wire fence; Ranch fence; Storage building / shed; Mature trees; Street paved; County road; County view

Interior

• Kitchen: Self-cleaning oven; Smooth cooktop; Stove/range; Ice maker connection; Walk-in pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and full bath (16 x 13); Bedroom 2 (12 x 9); Bedroom 3 (12 x 11); Split bedroom plan
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower and double vanity (11 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living/dining room combination; Open floor plan; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in pantry; Laundry room / utility room inside; Washer and dryer connections; Ice maker connection; Vent fan; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater; Self-cleaning oven; Smooth cooktop; Some window coverings remain; Walk-in closets; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Stockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#490 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockdale ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #232 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockdale El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 397 students, 54% FRL); Stockdale J H (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 199 students, 53% FRL); Stockdale H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 257 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,249 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $27,503
• Equity at exit: $109,457

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $98,577
• Equity at exit: $175,433

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78160

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $204,842

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-50	+0% $-114	+5% $-178	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-174	+0% $-114	+5% $-54	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-57	base $-114	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active Option 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active Option 14 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $225,000 Active Option 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    listed $225,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,599/yr (+$300/mo · 694.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-62/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841610
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,496
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3805
• State rank: #232 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stockdale

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #490
• US rank: #9696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,705

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Current HPI: 199.3717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $225,000 LERA

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.