52 Outlet Dr

Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$129,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Pending · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-220/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-220/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $130k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.