52 Outlet Dr · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 313 Days on market

Built 1991 5,100 sqft lot Est $108k · 20% over $70/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Nestled along a peaceful canal that leads directly to the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee and the Withlacoochee River, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfect for those who love the outdoors. Step inside and enjoy the comfort of spacious living areas, a cozy Florida room ideal for relaxing year-round, and a workshop perfect for hobbies or extra storage. With a little TLC and some updates needed. This home features a spacious, functional kitchen complete with a generously sized island and a designated dining area- perfect for everyday meals or entertaining guests. The home has a separate laundry room that leads out to an oversized covered carport. I

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Private dock
• Central air and heat

Tags

• CANAL ACCESS
• GAZEBO OVERLOOKING WATER
• PRIVATE DOCK
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• CENTRAL AIR AND HEAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions noted
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $70; Total annual fees: $840
• HOA & community: HOA required (River's Edge Estates) — $70 monthly; includes common area taxes, grounds maintenance, sewer and trash; Pets allowed with size limits

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch and patio; Private mailbox; Outdoor storage; Gazebo; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $130k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,160
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2834 County Road 423	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	16mo	$80,000	$77	53
3617 CR 406	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	4mo	$120,000	$104	50
3816 CR 405c	0.62mi	2/2.0	924 (-11%)	10mo	$142,500	$154	44
3182 CR 418	0.53mi	2/2.0	924 (-11%)	24mo	$50,500	$55	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $44,618
• Equity at exit: $73,513

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $122,168
• Equity at exit: $126,792

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $611/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $269	+0% $232	+5% $195	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $178	+0% $232	+5% $286	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $265	base $232	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   status Active
3. 2026-02-25
   price $129,900
4. 2026-02-23
   historical
5. 2025-12-17
   price $139,000
6. 2025-10-24
   price $143,000
7. 2025-06-27
   listed $149,900 Active
8. 2009-04-17
   listed $139,900
9. 2005-02-21
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$611
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$175
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+132.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $143,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-17 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $611 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.