2408 Pine Ave

Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$499,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · Built 1927 · Other · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-453/mo
• Annual: $-5,432/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $404k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Connetquot Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #155 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Connetquot High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,757 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 65% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Connetquot Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 175 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $500k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.