2408 Pine Ave · Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$499,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · Other public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1927 0.55 ac lot $391/sqft · 24% below area Est $661k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting ranch ready for its next chapter. Featuring 6 rooms, 3 bedrooms, and 1 full bath, this home sits on approximately 1/2 acre. Recent updates include a new roof, Soffits new hot water heater, and upgraded waste pipes for peace of mind. The property offers a partially fenced yard, a detached 1-car garage, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. While the home could use some updating, it’s the perfect opportunity to customize to your own style and create your dream home. Great opportunity to get into Conettquot schools.

Key facts

• Connetquot schools
• Upgraded waste pipes
• New hot water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• UPGRADED WASTE PIPES
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONNETQUOT SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $404k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Connetquot Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #155 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Connetquot High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,757 students, 27% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 65% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Connetquot Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 175 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $500k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $403,669 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $661,362
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -24.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-118,441
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-174,020
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$812 /mo · $9,742/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,610

Max offer price $419,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-311	+0% $-453	+5% $-594	+10% $-736
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-612	+0% $-453	+5% $-293	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-325	base $-453	+0.5pp $-582	+1.0pp $-714

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Lake Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,500	$2.50	45d	1	0.42mi
2758 Cedar Ave Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	2.0	1819	$3,200	$1.76	0d	1	0.64mi
500 Peconic St Ronkonkoma, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$3,417	$4.24	0d	26	0.77mi
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	0.97mi
16 Birch Dr Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$4,250	$2.77	26d	1	1.07mi
1000 Mill Rd Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$4,220	$5.01	0d	14	1.35mi
147 Lake Shore Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	940	$3,379	$3.59	0d	10	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting ranch ready for its next chapter. Featuring 6 rooms, 3 bedrooms, and 1 full bath, this home sits on approximately 1/2 acre. Recent updates include a new roof, Soffits new hot water heater, and upgraded waste pipes for peace of mind. The property offers a partially fenced yard, a detached 1-car garage, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. While the home could use some updating, it’s the perfect opportunity to customize to your own style and create your dream home. Great opportunity to get into Conettquot schools.

2. 2026-02-14
   price $499,900 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting ranch ready for its next chapter. Featuring 6 rooms, 3 bedrooms, and 1 full bath, this home sits on approximately 1/2 acre. Recent updates include a new roof, Soffits new hot water heater, and upgraded waste pipes for peace of mind. The property offers a partially fenced yard, a detached 1-car garage, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. While the home could use some updating, it’s the perfect opportunity to customize to your own style and create your dream home. Great opportunity to get into Conettquot schools.

3. 2026-02-12
   listed $449,900 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting ranch ready for its next chapter. Featuring 6 rooms, 3 bedrooms, and 1 full bath, this home sits on approximately 1/2 acre. Recent updates include a new roof, Soffits new hot water heater, and upgraded waste pipes for peace of mind. The property offers a partially fenced yard, a detached 1-car garage, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. While the home could use some updating, it’s the perfect opportunity to customize to your own style and create your dream home. Great opportunity to get into Conettquot schools.

4. 2025-11-29
   historical
5. 2025-10-24
   price $449,900
6. 2025-10-02
   listed $479,900 Active
7. 2025-09-19
   soldstatus $325,000
8. 1990-10-29
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,742 · $812/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,742 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$9,742
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,875
• − Management: −$3,875
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$14,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connetquot Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608160
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $88,180
• Composite: 58.89/100
• National rank: #970
• State rank: #155 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ronkonkoma

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #5262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,206
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+426.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $479,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,742 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.