14618 Fordline St

Southgate, MI 48195

$239,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,983 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$470
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-379/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-379/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in MI, #582 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Southgate Community School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #379 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fordline Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 288 students, 64% FRL); Davidson Middle School (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 631 students, 52% FRL); Southgate Anderson High School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 990 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 16 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $193k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.