4708 Hawk St

Inyokern, CA 93527

$140,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,662 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 285 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $92/mo
• Annual: $1,102/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,398 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, commute A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, employment F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $140k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.