15200 Silver Pkwy

Fenton, MI 48430

$167,500D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,648/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-366/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $46,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-366/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: State Road Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 28% FRL); Andrew G Schmidt Middle School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 717 students, 36% FRL); Fenton Senior High School (math 35% / reading 72%, grade C-, #125 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,102 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 39 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 12834% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $168k implies a 386% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.