15200 Silver Pkwy · Fenton, MI 48430

$167,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $249k · 33% under $175/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEST PRICED condo in Fenton PLUS $2,000 Seller concessions toward buyer costs, down pmt or upgrades! Prime Fenton location just minutes from Silver Lake, shopping, dining, and expressways. This spacious 2nd floor 2-bed, 2-bath condo offers an open layout, generous bedroom sizes, and fresh paint throughout. The private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and attached full bath, while the second bedroom and full bath can be locked off from the main living area to create a completely separate suite-perfect for guests, a roommate or added privacy. The well-designed kitchen features a pantry, and a dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. Step outside to your private back balcony ov

Key facts

• $175 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-366/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: State Road Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 28% FRL); Andrew G Schmidt Middle School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 717 students, 36% FRL); Fenton Senior High School (math 35% / reading 72%, grade C-, #125 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,102 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 39 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 12834% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $168k implies a 386% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $162,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,320
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2420 North Rd. Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (+2%)	7mo	$245,000	$221	48
2405 North Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (+4%)	15mo	$260,000	$230	37
3413 Ponemah Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+8%)	24mo	$300,000	$255	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-29,628
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-30,517
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $163,090

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $27	+0% $-30	+5% $-88	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-96	+0% $-30	+5% $35	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $12	base $-30	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 Arbor Dr Fenton, MI	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,749	$2.29	0d	1	0.09mi
3200 Foley Glen Dr Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,978	$1.82	0d	7	0.27mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	45d	3	0.83mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	0d	1	0.83mi
2100 Georgetown Pkwy Fenton, MI	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,348	$1.19	0d	26	1.06mi
714 Grant St Fenton, MI	3.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2023-08-11
   historical $1,295
2. 2023-07-17
   listed $1,295
3. 2012-08-07
   historical
4. 2012-08-07
   historical
5. 2012-05-03
   listed $34,900
6. 2012-05-02
   listed $34,900
7. 2012-02-02
   historical
8. 2012-02-02
   historical
9. 2011-06-23
   listed $34,900
10. 2011-06-20
    listed $34,900
11. 2011-05-02
    historical
12. 2011-05-02
    historical
13. 2011-04-28
    historical
14. 2011-04-28
    historical
15. 2011-02-09
    listed $62,500
16. 2011-02-09
    listed $62,500
17. 2011-02-07
    listed $52,900
18. 2010-11-26
    soldstatus $34,500
19. 2010-08-13
    listed $44,900
20. 2010-02-07
    listed $52,900
21. 2009-09-30
    historical
22. 2009-09-12
    historical
23. 2009-09-12
    historical
24. 2009-09-12
    historical
25. 2009-09-12
    historical
26. 2009-09-12
    historical
27. 2009-09-12
    historical
28. 2009-03-25
    listed $79,990
29. 2009-03-25
    listed $79,990
30. 2009-03-24
    listed $79,990
31. 2009-03-24
    listed $79,990
32. 2009-03-20
    listed $79,990
33. 2009-03-20
    listed $79,990
34. 2008-08-08
    historical
35. 2008-08-07
    historical
36. 2008-08-07
    historical
37. 2008-07-12
    historical
38. 2008-07-12
    historical
39. 2008-06-19
    historical
40. 2008-02-12
    listed $42,000
41. 2008-02-12
    historical
42. 2008-02-12
    historical
43. 2008-02-11
    listed $99,000
44. 2008-02-08
    listed $99,000
45. 2008-02-08
    listed $99,000
46. 2008-01-12
    listed $84,900
47. 2008-01-12
    listed $84,900
48. 2007-11-19
    listed $97,000
49. 2007-09-30
    historical
50. 2007-03-01
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$3,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fenton, MI
• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-98.5% since first listed

102 events — show timeline

• 2023-08-11 Rental Removed $1,295 RENT.
• 2023-07-17 Listed for Rent $1,295 RENT.
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-03 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-02 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2012-02-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-02-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-23 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-20 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-05-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2011-05-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-04-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-04-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2011-02-09 Listed $62,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-02-09 Listed $62,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-07 Listed $52,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-11-26 Sold (MLS) $34,500 REALCOMP
• 2010-08-13 Listed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-02-07 Listed $52,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-09-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-03-25 Listed $79,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-25 Listed $79,990 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-24 Listed $79,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-24 Listed $79,990 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-20 Listed $79,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-20 Listed $79,990 REALCOMP
• 2008-08-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-08-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-07-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-07-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-06-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-02-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-12 Listed $42,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-11 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-02-08 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-02-08 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-01-12 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-12 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-11-19 Listed $97,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $103,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-01-08 Listed $103,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-05 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-23 Sold (MLS) $87,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-05-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-24 Sold (MLS) $97,450 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-12 Sold (MLS) $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-24 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-02-13 Sold (MLS) $94,375 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-01-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-11-14 Sold (MLS) $97,747 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-17 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (MLS) $92,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-26 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-07-28 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-07-25 Sold (MLS) $92,680 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-31 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-27 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-04-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-25 Sold (MLS) $96,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-11 Sold (MLS) $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-25 Listed $97,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-22 Sold (MLS) $96,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-01-24 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-01-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-01-04 Listed $97,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-10 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-12-03 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-11-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-11-10 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-10-25 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-10-08 Sold (MLS) $97,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-22 Sold (MLS) $81,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (MLS) $94,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-24 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-18 Sold (MLS) $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-12 Sold (MLS) $87,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-06 Sold (MLS) $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS