419 N Austin Blvd

Willcox, AZ 85643

$174,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Built 1983 · MultiFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $239/mo
• Annual: $2,870/yr
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $120/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#193 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Willcox Unified District (4170) (town): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 249 in AZ (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Willcox Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 372 students, 50% FRL); Willcox Middle School (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 303 students, 64% FRL); Willcox High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 401 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Willcox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.