419 N Austin Blvd · Willcox, AZ 85643

$174,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Ideal Income property. This Duplex has 2 units that have been remodeled and the property has been well maintained and is very low maintenance. Both units are leased to long term responsible tenants. Virtually no overhead. Buyer can sit back and reap the benefits.

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $120/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Willcox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#193 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Willcox Unified District (4170) (town): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 249 in AZ (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,276 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,094
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,272
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85643

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $289	+0% $239	+5% $190	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $168	+0% $239	+5% $311	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $284	base $239	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $148

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,806
Total (2 units)			$1,806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 Hoch Rd Unit 122 Willcox, AZ	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	44d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 274-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $174,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$2,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $75
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willcox Unified District (4170)
• NCES district ID: 0409250
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,077
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8085
• State rank: #133 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willcox

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #19794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willcox, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,524

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 24% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.30%
• Current HPI: 141.9693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+249.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $174,900 FSBO.com
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-14 Sold (MLS) $127,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-12-27 Listed $138,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2017-03-14 Listed $139,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1998-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.