228 SE Estate Loop

Winston, OR 97496

$24,999D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $815/mo
• Annual: $9,783/yr
• Cap rate: 45.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.77%
• DSCR: 7.22
• 1% rule: 4.96%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winston-Dillard SD 116 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 58 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Brockway Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 412 statewide, top 74%, 237 students, 82% FRL); Winston Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 128 statewide, top 89%, 309 students, 67% FRL); Douglas High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #69 of 143 statewide, top 54%, 393 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 45.4% vs local median 2.7% in Winston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.