228 SE Estate Loop · Winston, OR 97496

$24,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1979 $24/sqft · 85% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

Key facts

• Attached dining area
• Walk-in shower
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ATTACHED DINING AREA
• BUILT-INS FOR ADDED STORAGE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Main level living area approximately 1,022 (listed as main level area); Lot size range listed as under 3,000 sq ft; View: mountains and territorial
• HOA & community: Countryside Estates LLC association; Association covers sewer, trash and water; Park name: Countryside Estates; Lot rent: $740 monthly

Exterior

• Security: No security features
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Electric fuel; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-story; Residential property (resale)
• Construction: Built in 1979; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Tool shed; Mountain and territorial views; Metal siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); Second bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; One-level accessibility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.4% vs local median 2.7% in Winston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winston-Dillard SD 116 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 58 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Brockway Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 412 statewide, top 74%, 237 students, 82% FRL); Winston Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 128 statewide, top 89%, 309 students, 67% FRL); Douglas High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #69 of 143 statewide, top 54%, 393 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,249 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.77%
• DSCR: 7.22
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,959
• List price: $24,999
• Delta: -85.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
751 SE Meadowood Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+10%)	0mo	$190,000	$170	71
870 SE Thompson Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	924 (-10%)	14mo	$125,000	$135	67
124 SE Estate Loop	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-10%)	24mo	$20,000	$22	59
265 SE Grape Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+6%)	3mo	$250,000	$231	55
711 SE Meadowood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-10%)	18mo	$264,000	$286	51
710 SE Meadowood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-10%)	22mo	$185,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.84×
• Total profit: $47,888
• Equity at exit: $3,727

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.52×
• Total profit: $108,616
• Equity at exit: $2,161

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97496

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $263/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $207

Max offer price $24,999

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 SE Darrell Ave Winston, OR	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	44d	1	0.58mi
133 Rolling Hills Rd Roseburg, OR	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $24,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $29,900 Active 400-char remark
17. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus $27,000 Sold 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

18. 2021-12-08
    status Pending 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

19. 2021-12-06
    status Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

20. 2021-12-03
    status Pending 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

21. 2021-12-01
    listed $26,990 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Spacious, well-maintained mobile in a quiet, 55+ park with pastoral and mountain views. Covered front porch. Only 15 minutes to Roseburg. New roof, laminate flooring, hot water tank, blinds & paint in 2015-2016. Newer vinyl windows. Central air conditioning and furnace serviced semi-annually. All appliances including washer and dryer. Walk-in shower and Wheelchair ramp from carport. Storage shed with built-in shelving. Space rent includes water, sewer & garbage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $263 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $263 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$263
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $7,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston-Dillard SD 116
• NCES district ID: 4113490
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,944
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8682
• State rank: #56 of 58 in OR

Livability — Winston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winston, OR
• Population (ZIP): 7,557

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 341.9441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $24,999 RMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $29,900 RMLS
• 2021-12-30 Sold (MLS) $27,000 RMLS
• 2021-12-08 Pending — RMLS
• 2021-12-06 Relisted — RMLS
• 2021-12-03 Pending — RMLS
• 2021-12-01 Listed $26,990 RMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $263 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.