8443 Lee Road 158

Valley, AL 36874

$166,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Under Contract · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $568/mo
• Annual: $6,819/yr
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.67%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $46,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $166k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#96 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary School (math 23% / reading 47%, grade F, #291 of 627 statewide, top 47%, 705 students, 72% FRL); Beulah High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 533 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $166k implies a 16500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.9% in Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.