8443 Lee Road 158 · Valley, AL 36874

$166,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Other · 88 Days on market

Built 1994 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Mostly level lot
• Rear covered deck

Tags

• MOSTLY LEVEL LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR COVERED DECK
• SITS FAR BACK FROM THE ROAD
• SOME TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.9% in Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#96 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee County (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #40 of 129 in AL (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary School (math 23% / reading 47%, grade F, #291 of 627 statewide, top 47%, 705 students, 72% FRL); Beulah High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 533 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $166k implies a 16500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,040 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.67%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,236
• Equity at exit: $24,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $54,408
• Equity at exit: $14,353

Cash invested: $46,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36874

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $166,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,500
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-12-10
   price $166,000 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

2. 2025-12-10
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

3. 2025-12-10
   status Pending 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

4. 2025-12-10
   status Pending 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

5. 2025-12-09
   price $166,000

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

6. 2025-12-09
   price $166,000 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

7. 2025-10-16
   price $154,900 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

8. 2025-10-16
   price $154,900 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

9. 2025-10-16
   price $154,900

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

10. 2025-09-12
    listed $157,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

11. 2025-09-09
    listed $157,000 New

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

12. 2025-09-09
    listed $157,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Move in ready. Close to the lake. Mostly level lot with 2.2 acres. Home sits far back from the road with some trees. Two bedrooms. Two full bathrooms. Covered front porch. Rear covered deck. Many options with this property. Live in this home while you build your forever home on the same lot.

13. 2019-04-11
    soldstatus $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,299
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable income: $4,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $5,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County
• NCES district ID: 0102070
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,786
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #6355
• State rank: #40 of 129 in AL

Livability — Valley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #11347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,329

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,440 people
• By 2030: 217,417 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 259,467 · +32.1%
• By 2050: 301,557 · +53.5%
• By 2075: 402,186 · +104.7%
• By 2100: 474,503 · +141.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.13%
• Current HPI: 218.2835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+16500.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $166,000 CBOR
• 2025-12-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — CBOR
• 2025-12-10 Pending — EABOR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $166,000 EABOR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $166,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $154,900 EABOR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $154,900 CBOR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $154,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $157,000 CBOR
• 2025-09-09 Listed $157,000 EABOR
• 2025-09-09 Listed $157,000 GAMLS
• 2019-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $1,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+34.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +130.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.