15 Medallion Rd

Kiamesha Lake, NY 12751

$179,999C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1970 · Townhouse · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $137/mo
• Annual: $1,643/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $180k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.