15 Medallion Rd · Kiamesha Lake, NY 12751

$179,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 2,178 sqft lot Est $209k · 14% under $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Kiamishe Shores featuring this 4 bedroom lovely townhouse newly renovated in 2024.New deck , New roof. 1/2 acre. Private backyard. Call

Key facts

• Private backyard
• New deck
• New roof

Tags

• NEW DECK
• NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $180k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,512
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Laura Ln	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	15mo	$160,000	$139	86
35 Elizabeth Way Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	0mo	$170,000	$148	83
22 James Pl	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	19mo	$214,900	$187	80
33 Peter Way	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	12mo	$208,000	$181	80
11 Peter Way	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	17mo	$185,000	$161	78
22 Robert Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,152 (0%)	18mo	$229,900	$200	68
13 Elizabeth Way	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	20mo	$220,000	$191	67
58 Peter Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	24mo	$195,000	$169	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $90,948
• Equity at exit: $145,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $258,270
• Equity at exit: $296,783

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12751

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,306/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $179,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
52 Medallion Rd Kiamesha Lake, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,950	$1.35	19d	1	0.16mi
52 Medallion Rd Unit 1 Kiamesha Lake, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,950	$1.35	14d	1	0.16mi
42 Krier Ln Kiamesha Lake, NY	2.0	1.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	14d	1	0.44mi
41 Rock Ridge Ave Monticello, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	19d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   price $179,999
3. 2025-12-01
   price $199,999
4. 2025-10-26
   price $215,999
5. 2025-10-09
   price $224,999
6. 2025-09-15
   listed $249,999 Active
7. 2022-12-09
   historical
8. 2022-10-14
   historical
9. 2022-10-14
   status Active
10. 2022-09-19
    status Pending
11. 2022-09-14
    historical
12. 2022-09-02
    listed $125,000 Active
13. 2022-08-30
    historical
14. 2022-01-27
    historical
15. 2021-10-03
    price $119,998
16. 2021-06-24
    listed $149,998 Active
17. 2018-03-21
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 2004-10-27
    soldstatus $75,000
19. 1983-01-17
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,306 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 16.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,306
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$291
• After-tax cash flow: $1,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kiamesha Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kiamesha Lake, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Danish 9% Estonian 8%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · German/W. Germanic 43% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.68%
• Current HPI: 397.7278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+620.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $179,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $215,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $224,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $249,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-09 Rental Removed — ONEKEY
• 2022-10-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-02 Listed $125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-30 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-03 Price Changed $119,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-24 Listed $149,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,306 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.