140 SE Serenata Ct

River Park, FL 34983

$279,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-32/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-32/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $280k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.