5378 Brandenburg Rd

Doe Valley, KY 40108

$134,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,472/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,196/yr
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#169 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $135k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.8% in Doe Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.