5378 Brandenburg Rd · Doe Valley, KY 40108

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · Other · 50 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rustic charm meets country living with this 2 bedroom 1 bath house. Inside you will find the doors and windows have been upgraded as well as two high efficient mini split units. Outside you can enjoy the private back deck , large yard and detach garage.

Key facts

• Private back deck
• Large yard
• Detached garage

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• LARGE YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.8% in Doe Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#169 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $135k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $358
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $28,779
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40108

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Rustic charm meets country living with this 2 bedroom 1 bath house. Inside you will find the doors and windows have been upgraded as well as two high efficient mini split units. Outside you can enjoy the private back deck , large yard and detach garage.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Rustic charm meets country living with this 2 bedroom 1 bath house. Inside you will find the doors and windows have been upgraded as well as two high efficient mini split units. Outside you can enjoy the private back deck , large yard and detach garage.

3. 2026-03-04
   listed $134,900 Active 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Rustic charm meets country living with this 2 bedroom 1 bath house. Inside you will find the doors and windows have been upgraded as well as two high efficient mini split units. Outside you can enjoy the private back deck , large yard and detach garage.

4. 2026-03-04
   listed $134,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Rustic charm meets country living with this 2 bedroom 1 bath house. Inside you will find the doors and windows have been upgraded as well as two high efficient mini split units. Outside you can enjoy the private back deck , large yard and detach garage.

5. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 96.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,413
• − Management: −$1,413
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $2,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$501
• After-tax cash flow: $3,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Doe Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #8518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.25%
• Current HPI: 205.7001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+159.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $134,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $134,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.