304 N Shelby

Shelbina, MO 63468

$54,900A-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $826/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,753/yr
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.42%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($826 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#188 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County R-IV (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #224 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Shelby Elementary (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 294 students, 56% FRL); South Shelby Middle School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 151 students, 54% FRL); South Shelby High (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 248 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.