304 N Shelby · Shelbina, MO 63468

$54,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Other public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1940 4,486 sqft lot $61/sqft · 31% below area Est $80k · 31% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Front enclosed porch is a nice feature as you enter. Step inside to kitchen with dining area. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets & counter space, appliances stay, and the laundry area is there making multi-tasking easy! Down the hall are two bedrooms (non-conforming) and the living room. Bathroom has walk-in shower, storage cubicles, and a closet area. Sun porch off living room is an asset to enjoy. A concrete patio is just outside the back door. You'll appreciate the 2-car carport! A small shed for storage completes the package.

Key facts

• Storage cubicles
• Laundry area
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• KITCHEN WITH DINING AREA
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• LAUNDRY AREA
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• STORAGE CUBICLES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($826 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#188 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County R-IV (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #224 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Shelby Elementary (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 294 students, 56% FRL); South Shelby Middle School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 151 students, 54% FRL); South Shelby High (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 248 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.42%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,640
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -31.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $37,147
• Equity at exit: $35,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $93,313
• Equity at exit: $66,576

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63468

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $328	+0% $313	+5% $297	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $280	+0% $313	+5% $345	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $327	base $313	+0.5pp $299	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $54,900 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Front enclosed porch is a nice feature as you enter. Step inside to kitchen with dining area. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets & counter space, appliances stay, and the laundry area is there making multi-tasking easy! Down the hall are two bedrooms (non-conforming) and the living room. Bathroom has walk-in shower, storage cubicles, and a closet area. Sun porch off living room is an asset to enjoy. A concrete patio is just outside the back door. You'll appreciate the 2-car carport! A small shed for storage completes the package.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $59,900 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Front enclosed porch is a nice feature as you enter. Step inside to kitchen with dining area. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets & counter space, appliances stay, and the laundry area is there making multi-tasking easy! Down the hall are two bedrooms (non-conforming) and the living room. Bathroom has walk-in shower, storage cubicles, and a closet area. Sun porch off living room is an asset to enjoy. A concrete patio is just outside the back door. You'll appreciate the 2-car carport! A small shed for storage completes the package.

19. 2026-02-19
    listed $65,000 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Front enclosed porch is a nice feature as you enter. Step inside to kitchen with dining area. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets & counter space, appliances stay, and the laundry area is there making multi-tasking easy! Down the hall are two bedrooms (non-conforming) and the living room. Bathroom has walk-in shower, storage cubicles, and a closet area. Sun porch off living room is an asset to enjoy. A concrete patio is just outside the back door. You'll appreciate the 2-car carport! A small shed for storage completes the package.

20. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Excellent Income Potential is found at 304 N. Shelby, Shelbina, Shelby County, Missouri. Vinyl Sided with a metal roof makes this an easy care investment on the exterior and 1100+/- square feet on the interior with many quality features tells you this will be one that makes you money. Good carpet, ceramic tile floors, 100 amp breaker box, gutters are buried and routed away from the home. It's crisp and clean with refrigerator, range, washer and dryer included. Start making money today! *potential of second bedroom!

21. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Excellent Income Potential is found at 304 N. Shelby, Shelbina, Shelby County, Missouri. Vinyl Sided with a metal roof makes this an easy care investment on the exterior and 1100+/- square feet on the interior with many quality features tells you this will be one that makes you money. Good carpet, ceramic tile floors, 100 amp breaker box, gutters are buried and routed away from the home. It's crisp and clean with refrigerator, range, washer and dryer included. Start making money today! *potential of second bedroom!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 52.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$793
• − Management: −$793
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $3,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$728
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2928110
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,627
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6517
• State rank: #224 of 324 in MO

Livability — Shelbina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #9918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbina, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,523

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,663 people
• By 2030: 5,352 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 4,762 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 4,200 · -25.8%
• By 2075: 3,058 · -46.0%
• By 2100: 2,166 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.9% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+62.9 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.42%
• Current HPI: 216.9275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $54,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.