411 Clark St

Thermopolis, WY 82443

$102,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,825/yr
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.39%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $28,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#12 in WY, #3,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs County School District #1 (town): math 66% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #3 of 41 in WY (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Witters Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #30 of 151 statewide, top 26%, 242 students, 42% FRL); Thermopolis Middle School (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A, #1 of 55 statewide, top 0%, 197 students, 42% FRL); Hot Springs County High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #33 of 75 statewide, top 49%, 203 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hot Springs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hot Springs County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Thermopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.