411 Clark St · Thermopolis, WY 82443

$102,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1917 5,663 sqft lot $79/sqft · 46% below area Est $190k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $102k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Thermopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#12 in WY, #3,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs County School District #1 (town): math 66% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #3 of 41 in WY (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Witters Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #30 of 151 statewide, top 26%, 242 students, 42% FRL); Thermopolis Middle School (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A, #1 of 55 statewide, top 0%, 197 students, 42% FRL); Hot Springs County High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #33 of 75 statewide, top 49%, 203 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hot Springs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Springs County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,940 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.39%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,780
• List price: $102,000
• Delta: -46.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
169 E Broadway St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,221 (-5%)	2mo	$169,000	$138	61
717 Amoretti St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-10%)	8mo	$115,000	$100	58
515 Fremont St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+13%)	12mo	$190,000	$131	57
414 N 7th St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,333 (+4%)	10mo	$161,500	$121	56
721 Warren	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,446 (+12%)	12mo	$135,000	$93	50
1203 1/2 Broadway	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+5%)	16mo	$260,000	$192	45
220 E Broadway St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+11%)	4mo	$106,400	$74	42
124 Chevy Chase Ave	0.72mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,323 (+3%)	20mo	$225,000	$170	37
1300 Amoretti St	0.74mi	3/1.8	1,212 (-6%)	20mo	$200,000	$165	36
444 N 8th	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,139 (-11%)	22mo	$200,000	$176	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,730
• Equity at exit: $15,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $29,214
• Equity at exit: $8,819

Cash invested: $28,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82443

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $339/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $102,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $348	+0% $319	+5% $290	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $273	+0% $319	+5% $365	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $345	base $319	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,500
• Closing costs: $3,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $102,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $102,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $102,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $102,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $102,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $102,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $102,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $102,000 Active 337-char remark
19. 2024-11-12
    price $110,000
20. 2024-11-12
    status Active
21. 2024-10-29
    listed $139,900
22. 2024-03-01
    price $139,900
23. 2023-10-13
    listed $115,000 Active
24. 2022-02-08
    listed $125,000
25. 2015-10-27
    soldstatus
26. 2015-06-04
    listed $68,900
27. 2007-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 83.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,714
• − Property taxes: −$339
• − Insurance: −$510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$2,967
• Taxable income: $2,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$544
• After-tax cash flow: $3,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5603310
• Math proficiency: 66% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,061
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1275
• State rank: #3 of 41 in WY

Livability — Thermopolis

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermopolis, WY
• Population (ZIP): 4,534

Population outlook (Hot Springs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,645 people
• By 2030: 4,542 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 4,371 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 4,337 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 4,479 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 4,570 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Serbian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Springs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.7% · R 80.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+60.7 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 325.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+48.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $102,000 WMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $110,000 WMLS
• 2024-11-12 Relisted — WMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listed $139,900 WMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $139,900 WMLS
• 2023-10-13 Listed $115,000 WMLS
• 2022-02-08 Listed $125,000 WMLS
• 2015-10-27 Sold (MLS) — WMLS
• 2015-06-04 Listed $68,900 WMLS
• 2007-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $339 · -21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.