95 Eric Ln

Autryville, NC 28318

$75,200B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 2003 · Other · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$394
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $776/mo
• Annual: $9,315/yr
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.24%
• DSCR: 2.97
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $21,056

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($520 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#592 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clement Elementary (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #354 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 348 students, 99% FRL); Midway Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 550 students, 100% FRL); Midway High (math 82% / reading 42%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 757 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sampson County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $75k implies a 234% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 3.6% in Autryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.