95 Eric Ln · Autryville, NC 28318

$75,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Other public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Acreage in rural area; home needs repairs - 10 acres of land; At the end of a dirt lane; large yard;

Key facts

• Large yard
• 10 acres of land
• Built 2003

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF LAND
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned A1A (Residential District)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Septic tank and holding tank for sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear porch

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace; Storage space; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 3.6% in Autryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#592 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clement Elementary (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #354 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 348 students, 99% FRL); Midway Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 550 students, 100% FRL); Midway High (math 82% / reading 42%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 757 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sampson County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($520 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $75k implies a 234% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,944 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.24%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $55,414
• Equity at exit: $30,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $132,010
• Equity at exit: $44,600

Cash invested: $21,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28318

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$394
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $648

Max offer price $75,200

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $819	-5% $798	+0% $776	+5% $755	+10% $734
Rent	-10% $647	-5% $712	+0% $776	+5% $841	+10% $905
Rate	-1.0pp $814	-0.5pp $795	base $776	+0.5pp $757	+1.0pp $737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,800
• Closing costs: $2,256
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $75,200
3. 2026-05-09
   status Active
4. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-16
   status Active
6. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-17
   listed $84,000 Active
8. 2003-10-08
   soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,212
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$376
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$2,188
• Taxable income: $8,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,070
• After-tax cash flow: $7,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sampson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704140
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,391
• Composite: 33.71/100
• National rank: #5379
• State rank: #114 of 178 in NC

Livability — Autryville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #21630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,303

Population outlook (Sampson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,499 people
• By 2030: 62,970 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 61,609 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 60,462 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 60,108 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 62,120 · -2.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Korean 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sampson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 34.8% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.4pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+16.7 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Current HPI: 263.6889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+234.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $75,200 LPRMLS
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $84,000 LPRMLS
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.