7 Pin Oak Ct

Old Brookville, NY 11545

$2,799,000D+

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,498 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,678
• Tax + insurance: −$3,359
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,515
• Net cashflow: $-1,053/mo
• Annual: $-12,631/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $783,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.80M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.61M (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.15M (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.15M (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $84k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Locust Valley Central School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #38 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ann Macarthur Primary (200 students, 18% FRL); Locust Valley Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 472 students, 17% FRL); Locust Valley High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 629 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.