7 Pin Oak Ct · Old Brookville, NY 11545

$2,799,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1987 2.10 ac lot Est $3198k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this timeless contemporary sits on two perfectly level acres offering exceptional privacy and a deep, usable yard. The property features an in-ground heated pool with a waterfall and beautiful outdoor space ideal for gatherings or relaxation. Inside, the home provides plenty of opportunity with its dramatic ceilings and walls of glass that create a bright, open feel throughout. The sunken living room flows into a dining area with a wet bar. The first floor includes a spacious primary suite, a dedicated home office, and both formal and casual living areas—all thoughtfully laid out and generously proportioned. With its solid foundation and impres

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Waterfall
• Primary suite

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• IN-GROUND HEATED POOL
• WATERFALL
• SUNKEN LIVING ROOM
• WET BAR
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.61M (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.15M (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.15M (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Locust Valley Central School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #38 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ann Macarthur Primary (200 students, 18% FRL); Locust Valley Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 472 students, 17% FRL); Locust Valley High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 629 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $84k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,150,000 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $3,198,078
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Linden Ln	0.57mi	5/4.5	4,934 (+10%)	0mo	$3,900,000	$790	53
770 Chicken Valley Rd	0.65mi	5/5.0	4,782 (+6%)	11mo	$3,400,000	$711	44
1281 Wolver Hollow Rd	0.72mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,550 (+1%)	16mo	$2,400,000	$527	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-521,073
• Equity at exit: $417,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-542,004
• Equity at exit: $242,006

Cash invested: $783,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11545

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,678
• Tax from tax record: −$2,193 /mo · $26,316/yr
• Insurance: −$1,166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,515
• Net cashflow: $-1,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22,832

Max offer price $2,613,064

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $-260	+0% $-1,053	+5% $-1,845	+10% $-2,637
Rent	-10% $-2,751	-5% $-1,902	+0% $-1,053	+5% $-203	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $-341	base $-1,053	+0.5pp $-1,778	+1.0pp $-2,516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $699,750
• Closing costs: $83,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Plaka Ct Glen Head, NY	6.0	6.0	5100	$21,500	$4.22	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $2,799,000 Active
3. 2020-07-08
   historical
4. 2019-07-13
   listed $2,099,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $26,316 · $2,193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $36,810 · $3,067/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,493/yr (+$874/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $258,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$156,788
• − Property taxes: −$26,316
• − Insurance: −$13,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,640
• − Management: −$20,640
• − Depreciation: −$81,425
• Taxable loss: −$61,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,833
• After-tax cash flow: $2,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Locust Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617700
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $104,480
• Composite: 73.72/100
• National rank: #171
• State rank: #38 of 590 in NY

Livability — Old Brookville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1119
• US rank: #23041

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Brookville, NY
• City population: 11,963
• Population (ZIP): 11,963

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Spanish 9% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.51%
• Current HPI: 279.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $2,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-13 Listed $2,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $26,316 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.