4501 Columbus St

Bakersfield, CA 93306

$2,783,000C+

1150 bd · 1170.0 ba · 12,300 sqft · Built 1967 · MultiFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $34,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,594
• Tax + insurance: −$3,085
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,232
• Net cashflow: $9,527/mo
• Annual: $114,320/yr
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.67%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $779,240

Investor read

• This is a 7×2bd/2.25ba + 12×2bd/2ba + 5×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $2.78M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($114k/yr) — positive. Per door: $381/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($34k rent vs $2.78M).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.70M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $83k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $755k; list at $2.78M implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $779k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $34,438/mo this rent would consume 592% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2871% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.