10670 Seven Hills Rd

Tyler, TX 75708

$205,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 990 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-233/mo
• Annual: $-2,792/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.