410 Canoebrook Dr

Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$390,000A-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,529 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$243
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $956/mo
• Annual: $11,475/yr
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.