410 Canoebrook Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$390,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,529 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 1994 0.56 ac lot Est $522k · 25% under $243/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Living grand on the golf course! Home has vaulted ceilings, flooded with sunlight thru the abundant windows. So many arched transom windows. All of this overlooking the 8th hole of the Lords Valley Country Club. Oversized primary ensuite on first floor, lots of closet space and a double sink vanity in the bathroom. Living room AND great room AND amazing 200+ sq ft enclosed 3 season room with gas heat. Floor to ceiling stone propane fireplace in the great room. A 1000+ sq ft finished walk out basement with a full bathroom, a very cool place to hang out. Oversized 1 car garage. Plenty of room for a workshop. So much decking to enjoy the outdoors. Be well! Be happy! Be in Hemlock!(tm)

Key facts

• Outdoor decking
• Full bathroom
• Double sink vanity

Tags

• ARCHED TRANSOM WINDOWS
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY ENSUITE
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• FULL BATHROOM
• OUTDOOR DECKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $522,292
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Canoebrook Dr	0.00mi	3/3.5	3,529 (0%)	1mo	$369,000	$105	99
431 Canoebrook Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	3,389 (-4%)	2mo	$617,500	$182	83
412 Canoe Brook Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,175 (-10%)	2mo	$654,000	$206	76
132 Orchard Dr	0.62mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,256 (-8%)	11mo	$425,000	$131	42
116 Orchard Dr	0.70mi	3/4.0	3,800 (+8%)	15mo	$560,000	$147	40
115 Washington Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0	3,045 (-14%)	9mo	$450,000	$148	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $273,568
• Equity at exit: $351,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $758,232
• Equity at exit: $757,684

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$488 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$243
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,790

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,226	-5% $1,091	+0% $956	+5% $821	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $561	-5% $759	+0% $956	+5% $1,154	+10% $1,351
Rate	-1.0pp $1,153	-0.5pp $1,055	base $956	+0.5pp $855	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
142 Eisenhower Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2764	$5,000	$1.81	2d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $243 · $2,916/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $390,000
3. 2025-12-09
   price $425,000
4. 2025-11-18
   listed $470,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$2,616
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$2,916
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $5,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $10,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $390,000 PWMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $470,000 PWMLS