622 Welsh Dr

Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$349,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,666/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$96
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,252/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (23.8% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $267k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.