622 Welsh Dr · Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2003 0.29 ac lot Est $351k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 622 Welsh in amenity filled Lake Land'or. You won't want to miss out on this 4 bedrom, 3 bath home freshly painted and awaiting you and your family. The spacious kitchen and dining area are bright , airy and ready for family gatherings. The upper level also offers a primary bedroom with full bath tub/shower, walk in closet, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. The lower level has a 4th bedroom and full bath with ceramic tile and a jetted tub. This home has a dream garage that will truly fit 2 cars. There is more than ample parking for you and your guests in the oversized paved driveway. Enjoy barbeques in the large level backyard that back to trees for privacy. The commmunity features: 2 lakes, beach, pools, picnic areas, tot lots and much more. This seller is providing a Choice Home Warranty for the purchaser. This home is conveniently located between I-95 and Route 1 for easy commuting.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Level backyard
• Large laundry room

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• JETTED TUB
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• LEVEL BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Access to Lake Land Or with water-oriented and water access features (boat with electric motor only, canoe/kayak, fishing allowed)
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee (amount listed separately); HOA covers common area maintenance, pools, recreation facility, road maintenance, security gate, and snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, exercise room, outdoor pool, basketball courts, playgrounds, picnic areas, lake and water access, and gated community features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry oversized garage with 2 garage spaces; Paved driveway with room for 5 cars; Total of 7 parking spaces
• Security: Community security features (gated community, security listed in association amenities)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached structure; Architectural shingle roof; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Bay/bow windows; Permanent foundation; Fee simple ownership; Property in good condition
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Permanent foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Gutter system; Backs to trees; Front yard; Landscaped; Level lot; Rear yard; Side yards

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven/range; Icemaker; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two on upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fans; Combination kitchen and dining area; Pantry; Master bath; Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Walk-in closets; Kitchen eat-in
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (dryer is electric); Utility room on lower floor; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,626 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Devon Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+5%)	0mo	$365,000	$254	78
64 Bishop Cv	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+2%)	10mo	$357,000	$257	78
222 Stafford Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-5%)	9mo	$332,500	$255	70
227 Kent Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-11%)	4mo	$330,000	$272	69
6 Kreigh Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+5%)	13mo	$369,900	$256	63
261 Manchester Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	1mo	$230,000	$192	61
649 Welsh Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,556 (+14%)	6mo	$347,000	$223	57
565 Welsh Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-11%)	5mo	$308,000	$254	56
229 Stafford Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-13%)	12mo	$308,000	$259	54
77 Greenway Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-8%)	0mo	$340,000	$271	54
51 York Cv	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+5%)	16mo	$335,000	$233	51
6162 Saddlehorn St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-11%)	1mo	$371,000	$305	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-63,429
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-64,142
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,607/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $331,474

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $-5	+0% $-104	+5% $-203	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-210	+0% $-104	+5% $1	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $-15	base $-104	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
583 Norwich Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,650	$1.69	3d	1	0.41mi
7120 Iron Gall Ln Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,495	$1.47	44d	1	1.34mi
7092 Durrette Rd Ruther Glen, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$2,260	$1.51	2d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $349,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $349,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,262/yr (+$105/mo · 78.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,607
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Land'Or, VA
• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+4898.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $269,900 Public Records
• 2021-08-13 Sold (MLS) $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-02 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-30 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MRIS
• 2003-06-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-06-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-02-14 Listed $15,000 MRIS
• 2003-02-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 1991-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,607 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.