10231 Sandy Dr

Baldwin, IL 62217

$20,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$926
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-449/mo
• Annual: $-5,383/yr
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.89%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $49,455

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($977 rent vs $20k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $240 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-981 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,281 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Red Bud CUSD 132 (town): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #268 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red Bud High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 410 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 13.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randolph County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.