11705 SP 22 Parey Ave

Proberta, CA 96080

$28,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$149
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $848/mo
• Annual: $10,174/yr
• Cap rate: 47.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.32%
• DSCR: 7.51
• 1% rule: 5.11%
• Cash to close: $7,980

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $197 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $855 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,425 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lassen View Union Elementary (rural): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lassen View Elementary (math 47% / reading 56%, grade C-, #373 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 358 students, 48% FRL); Red Bluff High (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 1,618 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.