11705 SP 22 Parey Ave · Proberta, CA 96080

$28,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1972 ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the peaceful River View Mobile Home Community along the Sacramento River, this well maintained Double Wide Mobile home offers a perfect blend of modern comfort and tranquil 55+ senior living. Property Overview Address: 11705 Parey Ave. , SP 22, Red Bluff, CA 96080 2 Bedrooms / 1 Bathroom Interior Space: Approximately 800 sq. ft. of updated living area. Key Upgrades & Features: Nearly new appliances, flooring, and mini splits. All lights on dimmers. New interior paint. This corner lot has lots of elbow room. Reliable Utilities: This property comes with restored and updated modern appliances with lots of upgrades. Outdoor Living: Step outside to an expansive nearly new 8ft x

Key facts

• Community clubhouse
• Newer water heater
• Built 1972

Tags

• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• 8FT X 16FT REDWOOD DECK
• 10FT X 10FT WOOD SHED
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport present; Gravel parking surface
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Propane available; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Metal roof; 40-foot mobile unit (LANCER HM model); Foundation details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Back yard; Corner lot; Garden; Landscaped yard; Wooded area; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; One fireplace (no special features listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,425 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lassen View Union Elementary (rural): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $197 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $855 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.32%
• DSCR: 7.51
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $46,563
• Equity at exit: $4,249

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.40×
• Total profit: $98,989
• Equity at exit: $2,464

Cash invested: $7,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$149
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $206/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $28,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $864	-5% $856	+0% $848	+5% $840	+10% $832
Rent	-10% $733	-5% $790	+0% $848	+5% $905	+10% $963
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $855	base $848	+0.5pp $840	+1.0pp $833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,125
• Closing costs: $855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $28,500 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $28,500 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,500 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,500 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,500 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,500 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,500 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $28,500 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,500 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $28,500 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,500 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $28,500 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,500 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,500 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,500 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,500 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,500 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $28,500
19. 2026-04-22
    price $29,500
20. 2026-04-20
    price $27,500
21. 2026-03-18
    price $29,995
22. 2026-02-13
    price $31,995
23. 2026-02-07
    status Active
24. 2026-01-15
    listed $29,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $206 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $217 · $18/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,596
• − Property taxes: −$206
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$829
• Taxable income: $10,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,500
• After-tax cash flow: $7,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lassen View Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0621090
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,781
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2974
• State rank: #142 of 517 in CA

Livability — Proberta

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #27601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 95
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $28,500 TCAOR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $29,500 TCAOR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $27,500 TCAOR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $29,995 TCAOR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $31,995 TCAOR
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — TCAOR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $29,995 TCAOR

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $206 · +567.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.