11739 SW Lemon Ave

Harbour Heights, FL 34269

$189,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $595/mo
• Annual: $7,146/yr
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.50%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nocatee Elementary School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 446 students, 84% FRL); Desoto County High School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,244 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $189k implies a 1045% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.0% in Harbour Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.