11739 SW Lemon Ave · Harbour Heights, FL 34269

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2005 10,236 sqft lot Est $191k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lot in Sunny Breeze Mobile Home area.

Key facts

• Lots of cabinets
• Large kitchen
• Spacious bathroom

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY
• SPACIOUS BATHROOM
• MINUTES AWAY TO A GOLF COURSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Located on a private, paved, level lot near a golf course on a dead-end street; Lot privately and publicly maintained road options; Approximately 0.23 acre lot (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Condo land included (ownership includes the land)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered off-street parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Attached property; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; CAVA make (manufactured); Completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed side porch; Covered patio/porch; Sliding doors; Exterior lighting; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.0% in Harbour Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nocatee Elementary School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 446 students, 84% FRL); Desoto County High School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,244 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $189k implies a 1045% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.50%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11725 SW Orange Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,278 (-1%)	6mo	$188,000	$147	90
11662 SW Lemon Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+8%)	10mo	$190,000	$135	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,333
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $55,356
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34269

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $649	+0% $595	+5% $542	+10% $488
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $501	+0% $595	+5% $690	+10% $785
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $644	base $595	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Organ St Unit 18 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $189,000
16. 2025-11-11
    listed $196,000 Active
17. 2004-12-03
    soldstatus $16,500 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Lot in Sunny Breeze Mobile Home area.

18. 2004-11-21
    listed $20,000 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Lot in Sunny Breeze Mobile Home area.

19. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $6,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto
• NCES district ID: 1200420
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,136
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7305
• State rank: #69 of 73 in FL

Livability — Harbour Heights

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #14202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,111

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,958 people
• By 2030: 34,465 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 33,137 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 31,273 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 23,898 · -31.6%
• By 2100: 15,517 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 28.2% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.77%
• Current HPI: 297.0303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1618.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $196,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-03 Sold (MLS) $16,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-21 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,768 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.